Positive outlook for Arab region

Despite the risks still facing the global economy two years after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic prospects remain positive for the Arab region.

The recovery which began in 2021 is expected to continue and the regional gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2022 and 3.6pc in 2023. However, the extent of that recovery will vary among countries due to several factors, such as the speed of vaccination campaigns, oil and tourism revenues, remittances inflows and development aid flows.

These are some of the latest findings released yesterday by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) in the 2020-2021 issue of its annual ‘Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the Arab Region’. Through the survey, ESCWA starts the year with an overview of the region’s economic and social development indicators and adds prospects for the next two years.

The outlook is based on two scenarios: a baseline scenario that assumes that the roll-out of vaccines will remain slow and that some countries will impose partial lockdown measures to prevent the spread of new virus mutations. In that scenario, the average price of a barrel of oil is $60.

An alternate, more optimistic, scenario, is also envisaged, in which vaccination roll-outs will progress steadily, demand for oil will pick up globally and the average price of an oil barrel will be $80, reaching $100 at times. In the cases where the roll-out of vaccines succeeds in containing the pandemic, the economies will continue to recover thanks to an increased demand for commodities and the resumption of tourism.

One of five United Nations regional commissions, ESCWA supports inclusive and sustainable economic and social development in Arab States, and works on enhancing regional integration.'


Source: https://www.gdnonline.com/Details/1019092/Positive-outlook-for-Arab-region


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