Covid-19 cases ‘may decline by mid-May’

AN international study using artificial intelligence (AI) has projected that the spread of the Coronavirus Disease could possibly start to decline in Bahrain from next month.

While the AI-driven data analysis claims that the pandemic will end in Bahrain by 97 per cent around August 7 and by 99pc on September 9, it does predict a downward trail of cases starting from May 16.

However, in its analysis the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) states that Bahrain will be completely free of Covid-19 by February next year.

Titled ‘When Will Covid-19 End: Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates’, the study is an SIR (Susceptible – Infected – Recovered) epidemic model based on data from different countries to assess the coronavirus life cycle across the globe.

However, the study, which lists predictions for 131 countries, has warned readers that “overly optimism” based on some predicted end dates might be dangerous.

“The model-based and data-driven estimation of pandemic life cycle (visualised) and end date predictions, if properly done, may reduce anxiety and prepare the mentality of all of us for the next phase of the epidemic evolution, no matter it is going to improve or worsen,” stated the study conducted by the SUTD.

“Such predictive monitoring will allow the decisions and planning of governments and companies that must be made now for the future to be more ‘future-informed’.”

The model uses data from ‘Our World in Data’ and the prediction is updated daily with the latest data complemented on the university’s website of daily confirmed, death and recovery cases in different countries.

According to the analysis, Bahrain will be the last of the GCC countries to fully emerge from the virus.

The first Gulf country predicted to recover completely from Covid-19 is Oman, which is expected to clear itself on June 19 followed by UAE on June 22.




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