Big drop in Covid transmission rate

BAHRAIN has not witnessed an increase, or doubling, of new Covid-19 cases in the last 18 days, as the country advances its efforts to combat the spread of the virus.

This is part of the key indicators that measure the spread of the novel coronavirus which have shown a positive reflection in the last two weeks in Bahrain.

During the weekly Press briefing yesterday, Supreme Council for Health public hospital autonomy project manager Lieutenant Colonel Dr Ahmed Al Ansari also revealed that there has been a significant decrease in the transmission rate in the last two weeks.

“The first indicator (to measure the spread of the virus) is the time taken to double the total cases, which showed that it took 21 days to double the total cases in Bahrain,” said Lt Col Dr Al Ansari.

“Since June 19, there has been no subsequent doubling until today, which is after 18 days.

“The last time the time taken for multiplication of cases among citizens was 12 days, as on June 13 and there was no doubling till date, which is 24 days.

“While among expatriates it took 21 days on June 4 and there was no subsequent doubling of cases until today, which is 33 days.

“This reflects the commitment of citizens and expatriates to the precautionary measures and health behaviours that we hope they continue with determination.”

He also explained details of the other indicators, including the ratio of existing cases versus recovering cases, the results from daily tests, and the higher basic reproduction number (R0) which is the average rate in which an infected person infects another.

“The second indicator is the ratio of new existing cases versus recovering cases,” he said.

“In the past two weeks, the ratio of existing cases versus recovering cases ranged between 0.6 to 1.4 new cases for each recovering case with an average of 1.2.

“This is an improvement in comparison with the previous percentage during the first two weeks of June, which amounted to 0.7 to 1.9 new cases for each recovering case.”

However, he added that there has been no noticeable change in the third indicator, which is the average of positive results from the total number of daily examinations.

He said that the figures showed that in the past two weeks this indicator ranged from 4.3 per cent to 10pc, with an average of 6.5pc.

“The previous percentage – from June 1 to June 14 – reached 4.7pc to 9pc, which reflects no noticeable change in this indicator,” he said.

Significant

“While the fourth indicator is the R0, which in the past two weeks ranged between 1.1 to 1.4, which indicates a significant decrease from the previous rate from June 1 to 14 when the rate ranged from 1.3 to 1.8.”

He was speaking during the Press conference alongside Health Ministry Under-Secretary Dr Waleed Al Manea, National Task Force for Combating Coronavirus monitoring committee head Lieutenant Colonel Dr Manaf Al Qahtani and Salmaniya Medical Complex infectious and internal diseases consultant Dr Jameela Al Salman.

During the weekly briefing, Dr Al Salman revealed that the number of Covid-19 tests will be increased in the coming days.

“We have reached more than 621,000 laboratory tests to date, which is evidence that the ministry continues its efforts in expanding the scope of tracing, testing and treating,” she said.

“This is among the highest number (of tests) in the world and in line with international guidelines.”

Source: http://www.gdnonline.com/Details/837208/Big-drop-in-Covid-transmission-rate