Bahrain ‘may be free of virus by December’

Bahrain’s leading astronomer Dr Waheeb Al Nasser

MATHEMATICAL calculations predict that Bahrain could be free of the coronavirus disease by December.

Using a compartmental SIR Model, Bahrain’s leading astronomer Dr Waheeb Al Nasser came to the conclusion with the help of a ‘Bell Curve’ calculation.

A symmetrical bell-shaped curve represents the distribution of values, frequencies, or probabilities of a set of data.

“The mathematical model, which was created by Dr Brian Collins, takes into account the positive cases, those exposed to infection and those who have recovered, with each segment implementing differential equations to highlight the number of those susceptible at any given time,” explained Dr Al Nasser, who is also an Applied Physics professor at Bahrain University.

“When doing the differential equations you will get a curve displaying from high to low and it starts with no one infected until the highest and all that become susceptible from zero to the maximum.

“Then, for those recovered, it will be the other way around from zero to the maximum and in between they take the differential equations in which the time frame between ‘susceptible’ and ‘recovered’ is examined.

“This creates a Bell Curve because it will have a maximum and a minimum in the differential equation.”

He explained that SIR stands for susceptible, which are individuals who have never been infected but are susceptible to infection and ‘infected’ which can infect susceptible individuals.

Meanwhile, those in the ‘recovered’ category include those who have either recovered, were immune to reinfection plus, ironically, those who had unfortunately died.

He added that factors taken into consideration include the nature of the disease, the sensitivity of the contact and social behaviour, along with other factors.

He also stressed that factors can be changed which creates different results through the models, even if the theory is the same.

“These are all mathematical models which are better than throwing information without having any reference point, or justification, as to why these figures were created,” he added.

“It might be 70 per cent correct or 90pc correct, depending on the factors that are input.

“It’s also worth noting that some people are very active in spreading the disease while others are idle so maybe his movement will only affect three or four people while another person may meet with a hundred people a day and all these things have to be considered.

“It is also crucial to take into account the geographical nature of countries, as in some villages residents meet a lot, whereas in others they don’t meet as often, while also including hygiene and cleanliness, as well as visits to mosques, along with other factors.”

He revealed that based on an average of several mathematical calculations, models, correlations and interpretations, and by changing the various factors, Bahrain may be clear of Covid-19 by the end of December.

He also suggested that based on the various models he incorporated Ba




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